Pickoffs

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Pickoffs

Postby rdrunner » Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:06 pm

How are pickoffs determined? It seems to me the rate of pickoffs is pretty high.
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Re: Pickoffs

Postby DDBBAdmin » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:13 pm

I suspect you have just had a run of bad luck. Pickoffs take place when a runner on first attempts a steal but does not get a good jump. The likelihood of a pickoff varies between 1%-5%. The variation is random and uniformly distributed. So, when a base stealer fails to get a good lead, a pickoff will happen on average 3 times in a 100 bad lead attempts.
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Re: Pickoffs

Postby johnnybravo17 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:05 pm

3 times in a 100 seems about right.

In my custom PBP file, I code most (nearly all) of the "runner can't get a good lead" events as unsuccessful pickoff attempts. I just think it flows much better that way, and it also neatly takes care of the problem of there being no failed pickoff attempts in the game otherwise -- as they are much more common. I also use the first few lines of text from the successful pickoff attempts to add a measure of suspense.

But I vividly remember having a whale of a time sifting through play by play accounts to find ACTUAL pickoff examples ... so that I could be sure that I had the spacing right!
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Re: Pickoffs

Postby DDBBAdmin » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:48 pm

Ugh ... yes debugging play by play files is not fun. Thank goodness for grep :D
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Re: Pickoffs

Postby rdrunner » Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:33 am

Ok. Well in one game Wills and Brock both got picked off twice. Seems that they happen a lot more often than 3 times in 100 attempts. I can't get through 1 day on the schedule without 2 or 3 pickoffs. But maybe it'll get better. Season is still young.
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Re: Pickoffs

Postby johnnybravo17 » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:50 pm

rdrunner wrote:Ok. Well in one game Wills and Brock both got picked off twice. Seems that they happen a lot more often than 3 times in 100 attempts. I can't get through 1 day on the schedule without 2 or 3 pickoffs. But maybe it'll get better. Season is still young.


Four in a game is a lot! I don't think I've seen two in any stretch of five games that I've played out in full.

The fact that it was Brock and Wills may be telling, however. The "bad jump" event gets called A LOT depending upon how aggressive the baserunning is set. Set high enough, Otto will tend to send anyone with a 40% or better chance just about any time there's a base open. It doesn't result in many SB or CS ... because most of the time the runner fails to get a jump and the "bad jump" event gets called instead. But if 3% of those bad jumps are pickoffs, then you'll certainly see an inflated number of those.

Brock and Wills probably have an easier time getting leads than most (generally speaking ... it depends upon which season of stats are being used for each) so you would expect the "bad jump" event to be called less frequently for them. The rest of the time, they'll actually attempt to steal the base. However, they are also much more prone to take off, irrespective of how aggressive the baserunning is set. (Set low enough, and Otto won't send anyone but the Brock's and Wills' of the world). I'm assuming that you're not playing with ratings ... so the catcher's arms (which alter the lead chance, and therefore could increase or decrease the "bad jump" chance accordingly) aren't a factor.

The "bad jump" event is pretty easy to spot in the PBP. (The default PBP file pretty much spells it out, and I either do the same or describe a throw to first where the runner gets back). If it seems like you're getting an inordinate number of those, and especially if guys who have no business stealing bases are getting a lot of them, then you might look at how aggressive the baserunning is set in your library ... both globally, and at the team profile level. If not, then you're probably just looking at a small-sample deviation from the norm.

If I flip a coin and it comes up "heads" five times in a row ... then chance for "heads" on the next toss is still 50%. It isn't likely that four runners could get picked off in the same game if the chance is 3%. But it's not impossible, either.
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Re: Pickoffs

Postby rdrunner » Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:26 am

No sooner said....I just played 2 days worth of game without a single pickoff.
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